AI Overviews measurably reduce clicks, and the drop is getting worse
Yes, Google's AI Overviews reduce the share of searchers who click through to a website, and two independent measurements agree on the direction even though their exact numbers differ. This is no longer a debated claim; it is a measured, growing effect that changes what website traffic means as a metric.
Short answer
AI Overviews reduce click-through rates to the organic results they summarise. A large-scale Ahrefs analysis put the reduction at 58% for top-ranking pages, up from 34.5% roughly eight months earlier. A separate randomised field experiment by researchers at the Indian School of Business and Carnegie Mellon University found a 39.8% reduction in outbound clicks when an AI Overview appeared. The exact figures differ by methodology, but both point the same direction, and both show the effect getting worse over time, not stabilising.
What the large-scale data shows
Ahrefs analysed roughly 300,000 keywords using aggregated Google Search Console data, comparing average click-through rates from December 2023, before AI Overviews existed at scale, to December 2025. It found the click-through rate to top-ranking organic pages had fallen by 58% over that period, up sharply from the 34.5% drop it had measured about eight months earlier.
That trajectory matters as much as the single number. The decline is not a one-time adjustment as users got used to a new feature. It has continued to widen as Google expands where AI Overviews appear.
What the causal experiment shows
Correlational data like the Ahrefs study cannot fully rule out other explanations for the trend. A randomised field experiment closes that gap. Researchers Saharsh Agarwal, of the Indian School of Business, and Ananya Sen, of Carnegie Mellon University, built a browser extension that randomly assigned real users to see or not see AI Overviews on their actual Google searches over a two-week period.
With AI Overviews showing, outbound organic clicks fell by 39.8% on the queries where the feature appeared. The researchers also found removing AI Overviews did not measurably change how satisfied users were with their search or how easily they found information, which suggests the click loss is a substitution effect rather than a sign the summaries are failing users.
58%
lower click-through rate to top-ranking organic pages, comparing December 2023 to December 2025 across roughly 300,000 keywords.
Ahrefs, AI Overviews click-through study39.8%
reduction in outbound organic clicks on queries where an AI Overview appeared, measured in a randomised field experiment with 1,065 participants.
Agarwal & Sen, Indian School of Business and Carnegie Mellon University
The click is disappearing as the default outcome of a search. Being the source the summary names is becoming the one that is left.
Why this is happening
An AI Overview is designed to answer the query directly on the results page, which is exactly what removes the reason to click through for a large share of informational questions. If the summary states the fact a searcher wanted, there is nothing left for the destination page to add for that particular question.
This effect concentrates on informational queries: definitions, comparisons, how-to questions. Transactional queries, and anything that requires picking a specific business or completing an action, are affected less, because a summary cannot finish those tasks on the searcher's behalf.
What this means for a small business
Click-through rate is becoming a less complete measure of whether AI-era visibility is working. A page can be the exact source an AI Overview cites and still see fewer visits than it would have three years ago, because the citation itself is now satisfying part of the searcher's need without a click.
The practical shift is to track citation presence alongside clicks, not instead of them, and to make sure the parts of a page that most need a visit, buying decisions, contact, proof, specific service details, are not the parts a summary can fully substitute for.
Common questions
Does every search trigger an AI Overview?
No. AI Overviews appear on a meaningful share of informational queries, not all of them, and the share has grown over time as Google expands where the feature shows. Transactional and highly local queries are less likely to trigger one than broad informational questions.
Does a lower click-through rate mean a business should stop trying to rank?
No. Ranking well still matters, partly because it remains one input into which sources an AI Overview cites, and partly because plenty of queries still show a normal results page. It means click-through rate alone is a shrinking measure of whether the work is paying off.
Is being cited inside an AI Overview worth anything if it costs a click?
It is a different kind of value, not zero value. A citation puts a business name and description in front of someone who may never click through, which still functions as exposure and, if the description is accurate, as reputation, even without a session on the site.
Do AI Overviews affect every industry equally?
No. The effect is strongest on informational queries where a summary can genuinely answer the question, definitions, comparisons, how-to questions. Queries that require picking a specific business, checking availability, or completing a transaction are less affected, because a summary cannot finish those tasks.
What should a business actually measure now?
Both click-through rate and citation presence, tracked separately. A page can lose clicks to an AI Overview while still being the source that overview cites, and that citation is a different, still-useful outcome that click-through rate alone will not show.
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